Future Passenger Air Traffic Modelling: Trend Analysis of the Passenger Air Travel Demand Network

Abstract

This paper is about the architecture for modelling future global air traffic on city pair level.Here, the focus lies on the initial trend analysis of global demand data required as a foundation for predicting the global demand network based on socio-economic scenarios.We present a 4-layer philosophy to model the future passenger air transportation system in a generic way on a global scale over time until 2050.The evolutions of demand passengers, demand connections, and airfares are analyzed as global aggregates and as distributions over the great circle distance between city pairs.Further, global trends of key network metrics are displayed.