Emergency supply chain management for controlling a smallpox outbreak: the case for regional mass vaccination

Abstract

Effective control of an infectious disease outbreak calls not only for a rapid response but also for the establishment of an emergency supply chain. During the control effort, huge amounts of medical supplies should be distributed from central warehouses to local points of dispensing. In this paper, the case where a large-scale deliberate smallpox attack occurs is considered. For changes in various baseline assumptions (possible delays in response actions, limited response capacities, etc.), the logistical requirements and subsequently the flow of materials for implementing a regional mass vaccination campaign are assessed. For capturing the disease's dynamics, a transmission mathematical model is used. In addition, a linear programming model for optimally distributing a predetermined vaccine stockpile to several affected subpopulations is also used. A numerical example is finally presented illustrating the methodology proposed. The proposed methodology could serve as a sound operational planning tool for health-care personnel as well as medical decision-makers.