System-Dynamics Approach to Evaluate Climate Change Adaptation Strategies for Iran's Zayandeh-Rud Water System

Abstract

This study aims to evaluate climate change adaptation strategies for the Zayandeh-Rud water system located in central Iran. A probabilistic multimodel ensemble scenario is used to characterize uncertainties in climate change projections for the study period (2015-2044). The Zayandeh-Rud watershed management and sustainability model (ZRW-MSM) is run under an ensemble scenario with different uncertainty levels to evaluate the effects of climate change on the Zayandeh-Rud water system and to identify effective adaptation strategies to minimize these effects. ZRW-MSM is a system dynamics model that captures the interrelations between the basin's hydrologic, socioeconomic, and agricultural sub-systems. This model can provide insights about the behavior trends of the basin's sub-systems under climate change impacts. If current water management policies hold into the future, Gav-Khouni Marsh, an important ecosystem, will severely degrade because of the lack of environmental flows, which will likely aggravate with climate change. Results indicate that supply-oriented strategies (water transfer) alone are not effective in mitigating climate change impacts on different use sectors. Nevertheless, when combined with effective water demand management, these measures can alleviate climate change-related anthropogenic water stress in the basin.