Using Simple Models to Predict Virus Epizootics in Gypsy Moth Populations

Abstract

1. Biologists have made little use of recent advances in the mathematical theory of the dynamics of insect pathogens, because of difficulties with parameter estimation and misgivings about the simplicity of the models in question. 2. We use an existing simple model for the dynamics of insect pathogens, slightly modified both to provide greater accuracy and to allow for more straightforward parameter estimation. 3. Focusing on the nuclear polyhedrosis virus (NPV) of gypsy moth (Lymantria dispar (L.)), we estimated each of the model parameters independently, estimating three of the four model parameters from the literature