The cost of a general stochastic epidemic

Abstract

This paper is concerned with the cost C is = aW is + bT is ( a, b > 0) of a general stochastic epidemic starting with i infectives and s susceptibles; T is denotes the duration of the epidemic, and W is the area under the infective curve. The joint Laplace-Stieltjes transform of ( W is , T is ) is studied, and a recursive equation derived for it. The duration T is and its mean N is are considered in some detail, as are also W is and its mean M is . Using the results obtained, bounds are found for the mean cost of the epidemic.