Headcounts, Expectations, and Presidential Coalitions in Congress

Abstract

This paper examines presidential influence in Congress. Three questions are answered: Do members change their positions? Is the administration successful at building coalitions? Are members converted by administration influence? In answering these three questions, a new set of data that identifies the positions of members during coalition building is introduced and a baseline model of members' preferences is utilized. With the baseline model, the positions of members are predicted. A distinction is made between those members who could be expected to change their positions in the normal course of events and those members who are true converts. Critical members are also identified along with members who probably are acting strategically. Although the nature of this investigation is exploratory, the results support several conjectures. First, there is substantial change during the legislative process. Second, they suggest that the legislative successes of the Johnson administration depended heavily upon its large core of initial support. And third, the data suggest that the Johnson administration actually did build coalitions by converting hard-core opponents. Two measures of how much conversion took place are proposed.