Estimating Risks of Progressing to Aids when Covariates are Measured with Error

Abstract

For some time, there has been interest in quantifying the risks of progressing to Aids from infection with the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) associated with changes in the immunological markers. Until recently, little attention has been paid to the considerable variability of these markers and the corresponding effect on estimates of relative risk. We estimate the risks of progression to Aids associated with immunological markers among a group of homosexual men infected with HIV who have been followed at quarterly intervals for 5 years. Errors in measurement in the markers are shown to bias these estimates. Smoothing techniques are compared for their effectiveness in reducing the amount of variation in the markers and the subsequent bias in the coefficients