The MILLENNIA peat cohort model: predicting past, present and future soil carbon budgets and fluxes under changing climates in peatlands

Abstract

The current human-induced increase in atmospheric CO 2 and CH 4 is strongly modulated by a range of terrestrial biogeochemical feedbacks coupled to climate, with the potential to amplify global warming. Quantifying biogeochemical cycles, particularly carbon, is therefore fundamental both to understanding how the Earth's climate is changing and to managing climate change. The largest store of organic carbon (C) in the biosphere is in the soil, with current estimates of around 3500 Gt (Tarnocai et al. 2009), with about onethird stored in deep (>1 m) peat soils of the Northern Hemisphere (NH) at mid-to high-latitudes (Gorham