Monitoring Covid-19 emergence data

Abstract

Summary: Measurements of the number of infected population in Italy occurring in the period February-April 2020 have shown an increasing behaviour similar to the one expected in Infectious Diseases of Humans [1]. Monitoring this number by a suitable statistical analysis is an essential step in order to understand the phenomena with the purpose to disentangle among possible existing models [2] for an efficient description of the dynamical Process [3,4]. Statistical analysis Covid-19 data : from 20/02/2020 to 18/04/2020 by A.Pagano (infn ct) ; Emanuele V. pagano (LNS-CT) – Entropic model – The Number (y) of infected humans is solution of the differential equation: Y’= by-cy². The parameters a and b are determined by fitting the curve of infected from 20-02-2020 to 19-03-2020. Solution of the equation is given in the inserts of the figures Fig.1 (infected)-Fig.2 ( rate by day of infected) –Fig.3 (relative rate : percentage over the number of cumulative infected ) Morens D.M., Folker G.K., Fauci A.S., “ The challenge of emerging and re-emerging infectious diseases”, Nature, 439, (2004), pp. 242-249. Carlo Piccardi, “Reti Sociali e Diffusione di Epidemie”, Lettera Matematica, n.86 Pristeam Univ. Bocconi, Springer (2013), pp. 30-37 Anderson R., May R., “Infectious Diseases of Humans: Dynamics and Control”, Oxford University Press, (1991). Anderson R., “The Application of Mathematical Models in Infectious Disease Research”, http://www.ph.ucla.edu/epi/faculty/olsen/200B2010/ANDERSON.FITL.2001.pdf