What Scenarios for the Euro-Mediterranean in 2030 in the Wake of the Post-Arab Spring?

Abstract

In the wake of the unprecedented uprisings that brought to an end decades of repressive authoritarian rule, the Southern Mediterranean region has reached a turning point in its history, presenting many opportunities and challenges for the EU. In this MEDPRO Policy Paper, Rym Ayadi and Carlo Sessa explore various possible scenarios that could play out in EU-Mediterranean relations over the next two decades but find, lamentably, that the EU has set itself on a ‘business as usual’ course, leaving the region open to further polarization and the involvement of other external players.