Temperature-driven global sea-level variability in the Common Era

TLDR

The study estimates global sea‑level change over the past ~3,000 years. The estimate is derived by statistically synthesizing a global database of regional sea‑level reconstructions. Global sea level varied by about ±8 cm during the pre‑Industrial Common Era, fell during 1000–1400 CE alongside ~0.

Abstract

Significance We present the first, to our knowledge, estimate of global sea-level (GSL) change over the last ∼3,000 years that is based upon statistical synthesis of a global database of regional sea-level reconstructions. GSL varied by ∼±8 cm over the pre-Industrial Common Era, with a notable decline over 1000–1400 CE coinciding with ∼0.2 °C of global cooling. The 20th century rise was extremely likely faster than during any of the 27 previous centuries. Semiempirical modeling indicates that, without global warming, GSL in the 20th century very likely would have risen by between −3 cm and +7 cm, rather than the ∼14 cm observed. Semiempirical 21st century projections largely reconcile differences between Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change projections and semiempirical models.