Climate change impacts on fire-weather in south-east Australia

Abstract

Fire risk is influenced by a number of factors – including fuels, terrain, land management, suppression and weather. This study assesses potential changes to one of these factors, fire-weather risk, associated with climate change. Fire-weather risk relates to how a combination of weather variables influences the risk of a fire starting or its rate of spread, intensity or difficulty of suppression. The study is based in south-east Australia, an area projected to become hotter and drier under climate change. The study uses fire danger indices, such as the Forest Fire Danger Index (FFDI) and Grassland Fire Danger Index (GFDI), to provide an indication of fire risk based on various combinations of weather variables. It also indicates that the window available for prescribed burning may shift and narrow. It is likely that higher fire-weather risk in spring, summer and autumn will increasingly shift periods suitable for prescribed burning toward winter.