The pace of fertility transition: national patterns in the second half of the twentieth century.

Abstract

This chapter examines the pace of fertility decline. The pace of transition is a relatively unexplored topic despite its short- and mid-term demographic consequences and despite the deep impression that the apparent rapidity of transition has left on many scholars (e.g. Watkins 1986; Cleland and Wilson 1987). The classic statements about the determinants of fertility decline are addressed much more to the question of why fertility declines than to how rapidly it declines (Notestein 1953; Davis 1965; Coale 1973; Freedman 1979; Caldwell 1982) although hypotheses about pace can be readily derived from these statements. As Bongaarts and Watkins (1996) note at present there is little agreement about why some fertility declines are precipitous while others occur at a leisurely pace. The chapter is motivated by prospective concerns – will decline proceed rapidly or slowly during the next few decades? – hence the empirical analysis is confined to Asia Africa and Latin America. I begin with an examination of empirical data on fertility transitions that have commenced since 1950 documenting the variation in pace of decline at the national level. I then shift to a conceptual framework for understanding variation in the pace of fertility transition followed by an extended discussion of those factors likely to accelerate or hamper fertility decline. (excerpt)