Implications of 2 °C global warming in European summer tourism

Abstract

Tourism is highly dependent on the climatic conditions of a given destination. This study examines the impact of two degrees global warming on European summer tourism from a climate comfort perspective. The changes in summer tourism climate comfort are realized with the aid of the Tourism Climatic Index (TCI). Four ENSEMBLES Regional Climate Models (RCMs) provided the data for Europe under the A1B emission scenario that are used in the analysis of potential changes in tourism favorability. Results show that the change in climate will positively affect central and northern Europe, increasing the potential of further economic development in this direction. Mediterranean countries are likely to lose in favorability during the hot summer months whereas will tend to become more favorable in the early and late summer seasons. Considering that the two degrees period is focused between 2031 and 2060, the estimated shifts in the climate favorability of Mediterranean countries indicate a need in early adaptation strategies.