Estimating inflation risk premia from nominal and real yield curves using a shadow-rate model

Abstract

This paper proposes and estimates an extended shadow-rate term structure model, and uses it to extract inflation risk premia from nominal and real term structures. Our model incorporates the shadow rate and thereby explicitly takes account of the zero lower bound constraint of nominal interest rates. The estimation results for Japan and the United States confirm that our model successfully avoids the estimation bias inherent in the standard affine-type term structure model that ignores the zero lower bound. As we theoretically and empirically demonstrate, the inflation risk premium is time-varying and takes both positive and negative values reflecting market concerns with regard to asymmetric uncertainty in future inflation.