Estimates of indirect land use change from biofuels based on historical data

Abstract

ILUC emissions from biofuels are commonly estimated with sophisticated economic models of world agriculture. Because these are often complex, the JRC in collaboration with Overmars and PBL has evaluated and developed an alternative approach base on “historical” data. \nThis approach gives simple and transparent estimates of ILUC emissions in recent years, even if the method is less rigorous in principle than estimates based on sophisticated economic models.\nILUC emissions calculated by a methodology using historical data are generally in line with those of economic models, showing a lower impact of cereals and sugar crops compared to vegetable oils.