UNDERSTANDING CRIME RATES: On the Interactions between the Rational Choices of Victims and Offenders

Abstract

Rates of property crimes are analysed as the outcomes of interactions at the macro level between the decisions of potential offenders to commit crimes and of potential victims to protect their properly. In this ralional-interactionisl model, offenders are seen as the consumers of criminal gains and victims as the reluctant suppliers of criminal opportunities. The collective decisions of both parties are determined by crude assessments of perceived gains and costs. Crime rales will stabilize at the point where neither potential offenders nor potential victims can maximize their net gains without provoking the other party to take counlermeasures (by improving security or increasing criminal activity respectively). By its dual focus on offenders and victims the model helps to explain the complicated relationships between levels of affluence and crime rates. It also offers new insights in the differential effectiveness of general deterrence, rehabilitation, conventional offender-oriented crime prevention, and victim-oriented crime prevention.