Use of Historical Yield Data to Forecast Range Herbage Production

Abstract

An analysis of the 51-year herbage yield series from the Many-berries Range Experimental Farm in southeastern Alberta showed that there was a slight dependency between current year's herbage yield and previous year's yield. The analysis showed that the conditional probability of a below-average yield following a below-average yield year was about the same as the unconditional probability of having a below-average yield in any given year. The conditional probability of an above-average yield following a year with a below-average yield was significantly below the unconditional probability of having an above-average yield in any year. The probability of an above-average yield following a year with an above-average yield was significantly greater than the unconditional probability.