Modelling the initial expansion of the Neolithic out of Anatolia

Abstract

Using the space-time distribution of 1162 uniformly recalibrated dates from 71 sites in Asia Minor, the Aegean Basin, Southern Thrace and Macedonia, this article presents geostatistical (kriging) and graphical simulations of the Neolithic expansion out of Anatolia. How fast was the advance of the agricultural pioneer front? Did it proceed in a single wave, moving at a steady pace, or did it involve instead long periods of stasis, punctuated by rapid advances? The article suggests that the expansion was more arrhythmic than linear. The spread of farming halted in Central Anatolia for several hundred years, before quickly expanding into Europe.