2008 · 22 citations · 9 references
Natural SciencesEarth SciencesMeteorologyForecastingTime Series AnalysisWeather ForecastingReal-time ForecastingTemperature ForecastingTime Series ForecastingTime Series ModelingTime Series PredictionAir Temperature ForecastingDaily Temperature ForecastingGlobal Forecasting ModelsLocal Temperature ForecastingPredictionShort-term Temperature ForecastingShort-term Weather Forecasting
The prediction of meteorological parameters at a meteorological station is an interesting and open problem. A firstorder linear dynamic model GM(1,1) is the main component of the grey system theory. The grey model requires only a few previous data points in order to make a real-time forecast. In this paper, we consider the daily average ambient temperature as a time series and the grey model GM(1,1) applied to local prediction (short-term prediction) of the temperature. In the same case study we use a fuzzy predictive model for global prediction. We conclude the paper with a comparison between local and global prediction schemes.
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