Issue-Specific Opinion Change

Abstract

Did the Supreme Court decision in the Affordable Care Act case change public opinion about health care reform? Utilizing a multi-wave panel design with observations collected just hours before and after the Court’s decision, this study addresses macro-level questions concerning the Court’s effect on opinion about health care reform generally and the individual mandate specifically. Findings show that support for health care reform remained constant despite significant positive movement on the mandate. The panel design also allows for the analysis of micro-level change and the testing of hypotheses related to cognitive models, individual attributes, and assessments of the Court’s legitimacy. Despite some evidence of micro-level variation, the data ultimately point to a decision that induced a general, persistent, and relatively unconditional uptick in support for the provision the Court deemed constitutional.