On the Causality Between Tourism Growth and Economic Growth: Empirical Evidence from Turkey

Abstract

This study investigates the long-run relationshipbetween the real GDP and internationaltourism in Turkey during the time period 1987-2007.For this purpose, tourism-led growth hypothesis(TLG) is tested by using two different methods:a vector error correction model (VEC) and anautoregressive distributed lag model (ARDL).The results of the Johansen cointegration test aswell as of the ARDL bound test show that thereis no unique long-term or equilibrium relationshipbetween the real GDP and international tourism.Therefore, the TLG hypothesis cannot be inferredfor the Turkish economy because no cointegrationexists between international tourism and the realGDP. Moreover, Granger causality test and errorcorrection model cannot be run any further in thelong-term period.