High-resolution stochastic integrated thermal–electrical domestic demand model

TLDR

The model was developed for low‑voltage network analysis, where accounting for demand diversity is critical. The paper extends CREST’s electrical domestic demand model into an integrated thermal‑electrical model that can also serve as a basis for urban energy systems analysis. The integrated model links electrical demand components (appliances, lighting, photovoltaics) with occupancy, solar thermal, building thermal, hot‑water, thermostat, timer, and gas boiler modules, and is available as open‑source Excel VBA. The model’s output was validated against three independent datasets, showing agreement with state‑of‑the‑art high‑resolution domestic demand models.

Abstract

This paper describes the extension of CREST's existing electrical domestic demand model into an integrated thermal–electrical demand model. The principle novelty of the model is its integrated structure such that the timing of thermal and electrical output variables are appropriately correlated. The model has been developed primarily for low-voltage network analysis and the model's ability to account for demand diversity is of critical importance for this application. The model, however, can also serve as a basis for modelling domestic energy demands within the broader field of urban energy systems analysis. The new model includes the previously published components associated with electrical demand and generation (appliances, lighting, and photovoltaics) and integrates these with an updated occupancy model, a solar thermal collector model, and new thermal models including a low-order building thermal model, domestic hot water consumption, thermostat and timer controls and gas boilers. The paper reviews the state-of-the-art in high-resolution domestic demand modelling, describes the model, and compares its output with three independent validation datasets. The integrated model remains an open-source development in Excel VBA and is freely available to download for users to configure and extend, or to incorporate into other models.