Amending the National Practitioner Data Bank reporting requirements: are small claims predictive of large claims?

Abstract

This study addresses whether a physician incurring small malpractice claims is predictive of large claims. This is one consideration behind reevaluating whether all claims that result in an indemnity payment should continue to be reported to the National Practitioner Data Bank, or whether claims with payments below some "floor" should be excluded. Using a claims database from 3,098 physicians for 1977-1986, both cross-sectional and longitudinal analyses show that an individual having a small claim (under $30,000) is indicative of a propensity to incur large claims. This finding is robust to the cutpoint between large and small claims.