Forecasting Seniors Housing Demand in Florida

Abstract

Executive Summary. This study uses a multinomial logit model to estimate the demand for seniors housing in Florida using these categories of housing choices: (1) no care required, owner-occupied; (2) no care required, renter-occupied; (3) assisted living; (4) congregate care; and (5) nursing home. The logit results are combined with the United States Census population projections to forecast the demand for the housing categories through the year 2025. Some results are: The no care, owner-occupied category is the largest. The population in assisted living is predicted to grow by 149% from 1990 to 2025. Congregate care is the smallest category and is predicted to remain so. Older non-minorities are more likely to use congregate care while minorities have a very low probability. No care, renter-occupied is the second largest category and is predicted to grow at the highest annual rate. These changes in demand for seniors housing have implications concerning reallocation of resources to meet the specific seniors housing needs.