Trafficking Networks and the Mexican Drug War

TLDR

Drug trade‑related violence has escalated dramatically in Mexico since 2007, with large‑scale anti‑trafficking efforts led by the conservative PAN party. This study examines the direct and spillover effects of Mexican policy toward the drug trade. The authors employ a network model of trafficking routes to show that PAN victories divert drug traffic, increasing violence along alternative routes. Regression discontinuity estimates reveal that drug‑related violence rises sharply after close elections of PAN mayors, reflecting rival traffickers’ attempts to usurp territories after crackdowns, and the network model shows that PAN victories divert drug traffic, heightening violence along alternative routes. JEL codes: D72, D85, K42, O17, Z13.

Abstract

Drug trade-related violence has escalated dramatically in Mexico since 2007, and recent years have also witnessed large-scale efforts to combat trafficking, spearheaded by Mexico's conservative PAN party. This study examines the direct and spillover effects of Mexican policy toward the drug trade. Regression discontinuity estimates show that drug-related violence increases substantially after close elections of PAN mayors. Empirical evidence suggests that the violence reflects rival traffickers' attempts to usurp territories after crackdowns have weakened incumbent criminals. Moreover, the study uses a network model of trafficking routes to show that PAN victories divert drug traffic, increasing violence along alternative drug routes. (JEL D72, D85, K42, O17, Z13)