National Bureau of Economic Research · 2015 · 166 citations · 43 references
Social SciencesEconomicsPolitical ScienceInternational EconomicsInternational TradeLabor EconomicsComparative Political EconomyCross-border TradeEconomic GlobalizationEuropean IntegrationTrade LiberalizationVoting BehaviorCausal Effect IdentificationCausal Mediation EffectsCausal ReasoningComparative Voting BehaviorEconomic Integration EffectsIndustrial Adjustment To Import CompetitionLabor Market GlobalizationVote Share
We identify the causal effect of trade-integration with China and Eastern Europe on voting in Germany from 1987 to 2009. Looking at the entire political spectrum, we find that only extreme-right parties respond significantly to trade integration. Their vote share increases with import competition and decreases with export access opportunities. We unpack mechanisms using reduced form evidence and a causal mediation analysis. Two-thirds of the total effect of trade integration on voting appears to be driven by observable labor market adjustments, primarily changes in manufacturing employment.
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