An Epidemiological Model of Crimean Hemorrhagic Fever

Abstract

A mathematical model of Crimean hemorrhagic fever (CHF) which satisfactorily describes the real epidemic process has been developed. Estimates of the intensity of infection and probability of disease have been obtained on the basis of the model. The probability of disease for subjects who had been infected was found to be a stable value characterizing the infection. In CHF, this value is 0.2153; in other words, the ratio of inapparent to clinically overt forms is approximately 5:1. By means of the model the causes of the lack of a stable immune portion among the human populations in CHF foci have been elucidated.