The possible role and contribution of geothermal energy to the mitigation of climate change

Abstract

Electricity is produced by geothermal in 24 countries, five of which obtain 15-22% of their national electricity production from geothermal energy. Direct application of geothermal energy (for heating, bathing etc.) has been reported by 72 countries. By the end of 2004, the worldwide use of geothermal energy was 57 TWh/yr of electricity and 76 TWh/yr for direct use. Ten developing countries are among the top fifteen countries in geothermal electricity production. Six developing countries are among the top fifteen countries reporting direct use. China is at the top of the latter list. It is considered possible to increase the installed world geothermal electricity capacity from the current 10 GW to 70 GW with present technology, and to 140 GW with enhanced technology. Enhanced Geothermal Systems, which are still at the experimental level, have enormous potential for primary energy recovery using new heatexploitation technology to extract and utilise the Earth’s stored thermal energy. Present investment cost in geothermal power stations is 2-4.5 million euro/MWe, and the generation cost 40-100 euro/MWh. Direct use of geothermal energy for heating is also commercially competitive with conventional energy sources. Scenarios for future development show only a moderate increase in traditional direct use applications of geothermal resources, but an exponential increase is foreseen in the heat pump sector, as geothermal heat pumps can be used for heating and/or cooling in most parts of the world. CO2 emission from geothermal power plants in high-temperature fields is about 120 g/kWh (weighted average of 85% of the world power plant capacity). Geothermal heat pumps driven by fossil fuelled electricity reduce the CO2 emission by at least 50% compared with fossil fuel fired boilers. If the electricity that drives the geothermal heat pump is produced from a renewable energy source like hydropower or geothermal energy the emission savings are up to 100%. The total CO2 emission reduction potential of geothermal heat pumps has been estimated to be 1.2 billion tonnes per year or about 6% of the global emission. The CO2 emission from low-temperature geothermal water is negligible or in the order of 0-1 g CO2/kWh depending on the carbonate content of the water. Geothermal energy is available day and night every day of the year and can thus serve as a supplement to energy sources which are only available intermittently. Renewable energy sources can contribute significantly more to the mitigation of climate change by cooperating than by competing. Likely case scenarios are presented in the paper for electricity production and direct use of geothermal energy, as well as the mitigation potential of geothermal resources 2005-2050. These forecasts need to be elaborated on further during the preparation of the IPCC Special Report on Renewable Energy Sources and Climate Change Mitigation.