FORECASTING GDP GROWTH RATES OF INDIA: An Empirical Study

Abstract

This study has been attempted to shed light on the issues such as forecasting growth rates of GDP of India. Data on GDP have been collected over a period of 60 years from various publications of Reserve Bank of India. A very simple tentative ARIMA (1, 2, 2) model has been fitted on data to estimate the parameters of autoregressive and moving average components of this model. Results suggest that only one period of autoregressive and moving average terms are statistically significant. Further, absolute values of forecasted GDP indicate an increasing trend and its respective growth rates reveal an opposite trend in future. Findings will assist the policy makers and managers to formulate economic and business strategies in turn more precisely.