Post-Earthquake Restoration Modeling for Electric Power Systems

Abstract

In this study, a discrete event simulation model of the post-earthquake restoration process for electric power systems was developed in collaboration with the Los Angeles Department of Water and Power, using their electric power system as a test bed. The model explicitly represents the real-life restoration process, enabling development of geographicallydisaggregated, quantitative restoration curves with uncertainty bounds, a dynamic map showing the spatial distribution of outages changing over time, and information on how personnel and repair materials are used throughout the process. The LADWP electric power restoration model was then used to estimate the earthquake initiated power rapidity risk in Los Angeles. The simulation-based restoration modeling approach used in this study enabled quantification of the power rapidity risk for the whole study area, as well as an assessment of the geographic variability of this risk, the stringency of restoration resource constraints, and the expected effectiveness of various possible mitigation strategies. An extension of this work is examining methods for optimizing the allocation of limited resources for managing power rapidity risk. This study provides three primary benefits: • It advances the state-of-knowledge of lifeline engineering by applying the discrete event modeling approach to the post-earthquake restoration problem for the first time. The new approach overcomes many of the limitations of past work providing more accurate outage duration estimations • It helps utilities better plan their post-earthquake restoration process • It improves regional loss estimation models by providing more accurate service outage duration estimates. This study is part of a large MCEER project that aims to assess the disruption to regional economic activity caused by earthquake-initiated lifeline service outages.