Validation of a Markov-based Weather Model for Simulation of O&M for Offshore Wind Farms

Abstract

A novel method to model wind and wave conditions for offshore sites based on historical data has been developed, in order to simulate the operating phase of offshore wind farms. Significant wave heights are modeled by a finite state Markov chain in discrete time. Wind speeds are simulated according to their conditional probability distribution, dependent on the corresponding wave height. Results show the accuracy of modeled wind speed and wave height time series, by comparing their second-order statistics, linear correlations and cumulative distribution functions for persistence with observed time series.