Risk Perception by the Public and by Experts: A Dilemma in Risk Management 1

TLDR

Experts and the public often disagree on risk assessment, reflecting a general lack of trust. The study proposes that establishing trust in low‑trust communities requires politically regulated public influence on decision making and risk monitoring. This influence could be implemented through a publicly elected, responsible ombudsman. The authors find that disagreement stems from expert disagreement, insufficient understanding of real risks, and that risk perception is better explained by cognitive dynamics than by emotional or phobic reactions.

Abstract

Experts and the public frequently disagree when it comes to risk assessment, indicating a lack of trust among the general public. The reasons for such disagreement are discussed, and it is pointed out that disagreement among experts and lack of full understanding of real risks contributes to skepticism among the public. The notion that people are in general reacting in a highly emotional and non-rational, phobic, manner is rejected. The conditions for risk assessment, and common-sense cognitive dynamics, are better explanations of risk perception. If trust is to be established in a country or community where it is quite low some kind of politically regulated public influence on decision making and risk monitoring is probably needed, e.g. by means of a publicly elected and responsible ombudsman.