COMPLEX ADAPTIVE SYSTEMS AND THE DIFFUSION OF INNOVATIONS

Abstract

The diffusion of innovations model (DIM) and complex adaptive systems theory (CAS) can be employed together in the construction of predictive or applied hybrid models of induced change in population behavior. In such interventions, differentiated heterogeneous zones may act as catalysts for the adoption of innovation. The present study explores the actual and potential hybridization of these two systems theories, relying on illustrations from historical practical applications of DIM, particularly the STOP AIDS communication campaign in San Francisco. The resulting co-theoretical model provides an analytical tool for students of innovation, particularly in the public sector, and especially in applications of network analysis predicated on a crucially defining feature of social networks, namely “the strength of weak ties ” among their members. In cultivating network ties among heterogeneous groups connected by common aims, it is here argued, the innovator may prompt and, to an extent, guide the complex emergence of innovation adoption in social systems. Commonalities in the concept of heterogeneity in CAS and in DIM is explored in depth, along its many dimensions, including membership and role