Journal of Climate · 2003 · 355 citations · 39 references
Natural SciencesEarth SciencesMeteorologyClimate ScienceClimatologyCryosphere StudiesClimate ChangeGlobal WarmingPolar ClimatologySea Surface TemperatureSea Surface Temperature VariabilityThermal Remote SensingArctic ClimateArctic OscillationClimate OscillationsElevation-dependent WarmingMelt Season TimingRegional Climate VariabilitySea Surface Temperature TrendsSurface Temperature
Satellite thermal infrared data from 1981 to 2001 provide pan‑Arctic coverage during cloud‑free conditions and reveal large warming anomalies in the 1990s relative to the 1980s with regional variability in the trend. The derived surface temperatures have a root‑mean‑square error of 1.5–3 K when compared with in‑situ measurements over the 20‑year period. Average Arctic surface temperatures increased at 0.33 °C decade⁻¹ over sea ice, 0.50 °C decade⁻¹ over Eurasia, and 1.06 °C decade⁻¹ over North America, while Greenland showed a marginal −0.09 °C decade⁻¹ trend; seasonal analysis revealed positive trends in spring, summer, and autumn extending melt seasons by 10–17 days per decade, with winter trends generally negative, and the 20‑year trend was eight times larger than the 100‑year trend, suggesting rapid warming linked to Arctic Oscillation changes and greenhouse gases.
Satellite thermal infrared data on surface temperatures provide pan-Arctic coverage from 1981 to 2001 during cloud-free conditions and reveal large warming anomalies in the 1990s compared to the 1980s and regional variability in the trend. The rms error of the derived surface temperatures when compared with in situ data ranges from 1.5 to 3 K over the 20-yr period. Average temperature trends are generally positive at 0.33 ± 0.16°C decade−1 over sea ice, 0.50 ± 0.22°C decade−1 over Eurasia, and 1.06 ± 0.22°C decade−1 over North America. The trend is slightly negative and insignificant at −0.09 ± 0.25°C decade−1 in Greenland with the negatives mainly at high elevations. The trends are also predominantly positive in spring, summer, and autumn causing the lengthening of the melt season by 10–17 days per decade while they are generally negative in winter. The longer-term in situ surface temperature data shows that the 20-yr trend is 8 times larger than the 100-yr trend suggesting a rapid acceleration in the warming that may be associated with the recent change in phase of the Arctic Oscillation that has been linked to increasing greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.
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Surface air temperature and its changes over the past 150 years
P. D. Jones, Mark New, D. E. Parker et al. · Reviews of Geophysics · 1999 · 1.5K citations · Full text
Surface Melt-Induced Acceleration of Greenland Ice-Sheet Flow
H. Jay Zwally, W. Abdalati, Kristine M. Larson et al. · Science · 2002 · 1.2K citations