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Sea Surface Temperature and the Maximum Intensity of Atlantic Tropical Cyclones
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1994
Year
Storm SurgeEngineeringExtreme WeatherClimate ModelingOceanographyAtlantic Tropical CyclonesEarth ScienceMarine MeteorologyStorm DynamicsAtmospheric ScienceOceanic SystemsClimate VariabilityHydrometeorologyMeteorologyGeographyOceanic ForcingSea Surface TemperatureClimate DynamicsClimatologyHurricane RiskPhysical OceanographyNorth Atlantic BasinMaximum IntensityEmpirical RelationshipOcean Physic
Theoretical results agree with observations across a wide SST range when tropopause temperature is assumed to depend on SST. The study develops an empirical SST–maximum intensity relationship from 1962–1992 data, compares it with Emanuel’s theory, and evaluates each storm’s proximity to its maximum possible intensity. Only about 20 % of Atlantic tropical cyclones reach 80 % or more of their maximum possible intensity, with an average of 55 %, and storms farther west, north, and in late summer–autumn tend to achieve a higher fraction, though interannual variability is substantial.
An empirical relationship between climatological sea surface temperature (SST) and the maximum intensity of tropical cyclones in the North Atlantic basin is developed from a 31-year sample (1962–1992). This relationship is compared with the theoretical results described by Emanuel. The theoretical results are in agreement with the observations over a wide range of SST, provided that the tropopause temperature is assumed to be a function of SST. Each storm is examined to determine how close the observed intensity comes to the maximum possible intensity (MPI). Results show that only about 20% of Atlantic tropical cyclones reach 80% or more of their MPI at the time when they are the most intense. On average, storms reach about 55% of their MPI. Storms that are farther west and farther north tend to reach a larger fraction of their MPI. Storms are also more likely to reach a larger fraction of their MPI in August–November than in June–July. There is considerable interannual variability in the yearly average of the ratio of the observed maximum intensity to the MPI.