An Analysis of Daily Maximum Wind Speed in Northwestern Europe Using Generalized Linear Models

Abstract

The basic climatological pattern and recent trends in daily maximum wind speed (DMWS) for the region 47.5°–65°N and 12.5°W–22.5°E are studied using gamma distributions within a generalized linear model. Between 1958 and 1998, DMWS has increased over the ocean in winter but weakened over continental Europe in summer. Large-scale circulation changes such as those of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Arctic Oscillation (AO) account for the strengthening wind over the ocean. Global warming may have impacted the regional wind climate. In particular, Southern Hemisphere temperature exhibits a significant effect on the distinct oceanic and continental trends in DMWS. It is suggested that the steady warming of the Southern Hemisphere during the last few decades may have forced the North Atlantic storm track to shift in such a way that storms are enhanced toward the northwestern oceanic area, but weakened throughout most of the European continent.