Large-Scale Influences on Tropical Cyclogenesis in the Western North Pacific

Abstract

Objectively analyzed data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts are used to examine the large-scale aspects of the formation of tropical cyclones. It is hypothesized that tropical cyclogenesis occurs when external atmospheric forcing on the synoptic or larger scale provides uplift through a deep layer, enhancing convection, in a region with environmental conditions favorable for genesis. Emphasis is placed on the roles of upper-level troughs, low-level wind surges, preexisting tropical cyclones, and propagating wave disturbances in triggering tropical cyclogenesis. Composites of the 200-hPa and 850-hPa flows reveal the presence of both upper-level troughs and low-level wind surges, respectively, prior to genesis. In the composites, the wind surges also appear to be related to the presence of a prior circulation located approximately 2000 km to the west of the genesis location. An examination of the individual cases demonstrates that approximately 85% of all storms had either an upper-level trough or an identifiable low-level feature, while 49% had both an upper- and a lower-level feature. Given the limitations of the objective analyses over the tropical oceans, this provides strong evidence for the role of large-scale external forcing in triggering tropical cyclogenesis.