Radar Reflectivity–Derived Thunderstorm Parameters Applied to Storm Longevity Forecasting

Abstract

In order for the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) to use airspace more efficiently during thunderstorm events, accurate storm longevity forecasts are needed. Relationships between 16 radar reflectivity–derived storm characteristics and storm longevity are examined to determine which, if any, of the storm characteristics are strongly related to storm lifetime. Such relationships are potentially useful for the development of storm longevity forecasts. The study includes 879 storms that formed over the Memphis, Tennessee, area during 15 late spring and summer convective days. Statistical analyses comparing all 16 storm characteristics to the observed remaining lifetime show that these storm characteristics are not good predictors for storm remaining lifetime.