H<scp>ISTORICAL AND</scp> F<scp>UTURE</scp> T<scp>RENDS IN</scp> A<scp>IRCRAFT</scp> P<scp>ERFORMANCE</scp>, C<scp>OST</scp>, <scp>AND</scp> E<scp>MISSIONS</scp>

TLDR

Air travel growth and declining energy intensity have led to rising fuel use and emissions, prompting industry and governments to seek acceptable emission‑reduction rates amid the interdependency of aircraft systems and environmental impacts. The study examines how historical aircraft performance has influenced cost to assess the potential pace of future efficiency improvements and emissions reductions. Using analytical and statistical models on historical US airline data, the authors quantify how technological and operational factors affect aircraft energy intensity, cost, and price, and project future energy‑intensity reduction potential and economic characteristics via trend extrapolation. The projections indicate that future aircraft can achieve significant energy‑intensity reductions while maintaining favorable economic characteristics.

Abstract

▪ Abstract The interdependency of aircraft technological systems, the global reach of the aviation transport industry, and the uncertainty surrounding potential atmospheric effects have made defining the relationship between aviation and environmental impact an arduous task. Air travel continues to experience the fastest growth of all modes of transport, and although the energy intensity of the aviation transport system continues to decline, fuel use and total emissions have steadily risen. This trend, which represents a conflict between growth and environmental impact, has motivated the aircraft manufacturing and airline industries, the scientific community, and governmental bodies to consider what pace of emissions reduction is acceptable. This paper analyzes the historical influence of aircraft performance on cost to examine the potential pace of future efficiency improvements and emissions reduction. Technological and operational influences on aircraft energy intensity are quantified and correlated with direct operating cost and aircraft price using analytical and statistical models built upon historical data for US airlines. The energy intensity reduction potential and economic characteristics of future aircraft are also projected, through extrapolations of historical trends in aircraft technology and operations.