International Society of Sugar Cane Technologists. Proceedings of the XXIV Congress, Brisbane, Australia, 17-21 September 2001. Volume 2. · 2001 · 14 citations · 10 references
AgricultureCrop SciencesPlant SciencesCrop ModelingCrop PhysiologyCrop ProductionAgricultural AdaptationAgricultural Climate AdaptationClimate AdaptationClimate ChangeIrrigationPhotosynthesis ModelingAgricultural Climate ImpactsAtmospheric Carbon DioxideCarbon DioxideClimate Change Impacts On CropsClimate Change Impacts On YieldClimate Change ScenariosCrop Yield Impact AssessmentLong-term Climate Variability
The vulnerability of cane and sucrose production to climate change and three adaptation options that could be used in Mauritius (20.25S, 57.5E) were assessed using the Sugarcane module of the Agricultural Production Systems SIMulator (APSIM-Sugarcane). Long-term observed climate data for one location, identified as being representative of the island's productivity, were used to generate the baseline yields that were close to the 1954 to1996 recorded average. Climate change scenarios under a doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide level were generated using long-term observed data either with outputs from General Circulation Models (increases in temperature with differences in rainfall and radiation patterns), or with nominal increments of 2°C and 4°C rise in temperature with 10% and 20% increase or decrease in rainfall. The direct effects of C02 fertilisation on the physiology of the crop were not accounted for. Under all scenarios, the model simulated a reduction in productivity that was attributed to lower water use efficiencies and higher respiratory demands. Irrigation was the best adaptation option evaluated as opposed to a change in cultivar or harvest date.
10