MODELING CRIMINAL CAREERS*

Abstract

A stochastic model of criminal careers embodying the assumptions of Gottfredson and Hirschi (1986, 1988) is used as a tool to examine the arguments and claims that have been raised in the recent debate over the nature of criminal careers. The model is used to fit aggregate career data in different jurisdictions and to explain racial and sex patterns in recidivism data. Some of the arguments that have been deployed on both sides of this debate are shown to lack validity. Nullius in verba. —Motto of the Royal Society