When in Doubt, Use Proxies

TLDR

The article argues that citizens use proxies based on domestic political attitudes when answering survey questions about European integration. It develops a public‑opinion model linking attitudes toward the political system, incumbent government, and establishment parties, and tests it with Eurobarometer 34.0 data from Belgium, Denmark, France, Germany, Ireland, Italy, and Portugal. The analysis finds that support for EU membership is most strongly driven by system and establishment‑party support, while the previously reported economic effect is likely mediated by domestic political attitudes.

Abstract

This article argues that citizens employ proxies rooted in attitudes about domestic politics when responding to survey questions about the European integration process. It develops a model of public opinion toward European integration based on attitudes toward the political system, the incumbent government, and establishment parties. With the help of data from Eurobarometer 34.0, the study tests political and economic models of public support for membership in the European Union in Belgium, Denmark, France, Germany, Ireland, Italy, and Portugal. The analyses show that system and establishment party support are the most powerful determinants of support for membership in the European Union. The results also suggest that the relationship between economic factors and support previously reported in research on public opinion toward European integration is likely to be mediated by domestic political attitudes.