Lifetime Risk for Diabetes Mellitus in the United States

TLDR

Diabetes mellitus is a prevalent and costly chronic disease in the United States, yet no lifetime risk estimates have been published, and the lifetime probability of diagnosis for those born in 2000 is substantial. The study aims to estimate age-, sex-, and race/ethnicity-specific lifetime risk of diabetes for individuals born in 2000 in the United States. Using National Health Interview Survey data for prevalence and incidence, Census Bureau and prior mortality studies for death rates, the authors calculated residual lifetime risk, duration, and life‑year losses from birth to age 80. The study found that individuals born in 2000 have a 32.8 % lifetime risk of diabetes for males and 38.5 % for females, with Hispanics at the highest risk (45.4 % and 52.5 % respectively), females consistently showing higher residual risk, early diagnosis leading to substantial life‑year and QALY losses, underscoring the importance of primary prevention.

Abstract

Although diabetes mellitus is one of the most prevalent and costly chronic diseases in the United States, no estimates have been published of individuals' average lifetime risk of developing diabetes.To estimate age-, sex-, and race/ethnicity-specific lifetime risk of diabetes in the cohort born in 2000 in the United States.Data from the National Health Interview Survey (1984-2000) were used to estimate age-, sex-, and race/ethnicity-specific prevalence and incidence in 2000. US Census Bureau data and data from a previous study of diabetes as a cause of death were used to estimate age-, sex-, and race/ethnicity-specific mortality rates for diabetic and nondiabetic populations.Residual (remaining) lifetime risk of diabetes (from birth to 80 years in 1-year intervals), duration with diabetes, and life-years and quality-adjusted life-years lost from diabetes.The estimated lifetime risk of developing diabetes for individuals born in 2000 is 32.8% for males and 38.5% for females. Females have higher residual lifetime risks at all ages. The highest estimated lifetime risk for diabetes is among Hispanics (males, 45.4% and females, 52.5%). Individuals diagnosed as having diabetes have large reductions in life expectancy. For example, we estimate that if an individual is diagnosed at age 40 years, men will lose 11.6 life-years and 18.6 quality-adjusted life-years and women will lose 14.3 life-years and 22.0 quality-adjusted life-years.For individuals born in the United States in 2000, the lifetime probability of being diagnosed with diabetes mellitus is substantial. Primary prevention of diabetes and its complications are important public health priorities.