Current status of CME/shock arrival time prediction

Abstract

Abstract One of the major solar transients, coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and their related interplanetary shocks have severe space weather effects and become the focus of study for both solar and space scientists. Predicting their evolutions in the heliosphere and arrival times at Earth is an important component of the space weather predictions. Various kinds of models in this aspect have been developed during the past decades. In this paper, we will present a view of the present status (during Solar Cycle 24 in 2014) of the space weather's objective to predict the arrival of coronal mass ejections and their interplanetary shock waves at Earth. This status, by implication, is relevant to their arrival elsewhere in the solar system. Application of this prediction status is clearly appropriate for operational magnetospheric and ionospheric situations including A − > B − > C…solar system missions. We review current empirical models, expansion speed model, drag‐based models, physics‐based models (and their real‐time prediction's statistical experience in Solar Cycle 23), and MHD models. New observations in Solar Cycle 24, including techniques/models, are introduced as they could be incorporated to form new prediction models. The limitations of the present models and the direction of further development are also suggested.