Load Forecasting for Distribution Planning-Error and Impact on Design

Abstract

An investigation is made into the impact of small area load forecast errors on the planning of a power distribution system. It is shown that traditional error measures are inadequate as indicators of forecast quality. A new method of studying a power system is described. The technique is a 2-D spatial frequency analysis of power system configuration. A new error measure, based on this technique, is described and shown to assess errors proportional to their likely impact on system design. It reveals a number of concepts useful for improving load forecasting and distribution system planning.