Decline and depletion rates of oil production: a comprehensive investigation

TLDR

Oilfield decline rates and depletion rates are key concepts in oil supply debates, and while related, they are distinct. The paper aims to clarify the definitions of decline and depletion rates, summarize their theory, and empirically estimate them across oilfield categories. The study analyzes a database of 880 post‑peak fields to determine typical depletion levels, depletion rates, and decline rates. The analysis shows that oilfield size strongly influences decline and depletion rates, with small fields exhibiting higher rates than larger ones, implying significant effects on oil supply forecasting.

Abstract

Two of the most fundamental concepts in the current debate about future oil supply are oilfield decline rates and depletion rates. These concepts are related, but not identical. This paper clarifies the definitions of these concepts, summarizes the underlying theory and empirically estimates decline and depletion rates for different categories of oilfield. A database of 880 post-peak fields is analysed to determine typical depletion levels, depletion rates and decline rates. This demonstrates that the size of oilfields has a significant influence on decline and depletion rates, with generally high values for small fields and comparatively low values for larger fields. These empirical findings have important implications for oil supply forecasting.