Roads, Railroads, and Decentralization of Chinese Cities

TLDR

The study examines how railroad and highway layouts have shaped Chinese city development since 1990. Radial highways shift about 4 % of central population and ring roads add ~20 %, while radial railroads cut central industrial GDP by ~20 % and ring roads by an additional 50 %, with highways decentralizing services, railroads decentralizing industry, and ring roads decentralizing both, and stronger effects in wealthier coastal and central regions.

Abstract

We investigate how urban railroad and highway configurations have influenced urban form in Chinese cities since 1990. Each radial highway displaces 4% of central city population to surrounding regions, and ring roads displace about an additional 20%, with stronger effects in the richer coastal and central regions. Each radial railroad reduces central city industrial GDP by about 20%, with ring roads displacing an additional 50%. We provide evidence that radial highways decentralize service sector activity, radial railroads decentralize industrial activity, and ring roads decentralize both. Historical transportation infrastructure provides identifying variation in more recent measures of infrastructure.