Implications of changing climate for global wildland fire

TLDR

Wildland fire worldwide results from interactions among climate, fuels, and human activity, and rapid greenhouse gas–driven climate change is expected to alter fire severity, intensity, and spatial patterns in complex, non‑linear ways. The paper reviews current knowledge on future wildland fire trends and identifies research and management priorities, emphasizing the need for better data, integrated global studies, and investigation of policy, practices, and human behavior. The authors conduct a comprehensive review of existing literature and synthesize evidence on future fire dynamics, highlighting gaps and proposing integrated modeling and data collection approaches. Current evidence indicates a general rise in area burned and fire frequency, with notable spatial heterogeneity, and a continuing lengthening of fire seasons in temperate and boreal regions under warming.

Abstract

Wildland fire is a global phenomenon, and a result of interactions between climate–weather, fuels and people. Our climate is changing rapidly primarily through the release of greenhouse gases that may have profound and possibly unexpected impacts on global fire activity. The present paper reviews the current understanding of what the future may bring with respect to wildland fire and discusses future options for research and management. To date, research suggests a general increase in area burned and fire occurrence but there is a lot of spatial variability, with some areas of no change or even decreases in area burned and occurrence. Fire seasons are lengthening for temperate and boreal regions and this trend should continue in a warmer world. Future trends of fire severity and intensity are difficult to determine owing to the complex and non-linear interactions between weather, vegetation and people. Improved fire data are required along with continued global studies that dynamically include weather, vegetation, people, and other disturbances. Lastly, we need more research on the role of policy, practices and human behaviour because most of the global fire activity is directly attributable to people.