Estimation of Vaccine Efficacy in Non‐Randomly Mixing Populations

Abstract

Abstract A deterministic model for the transmission of an acute infectious disease in a heterogeneous, nonrandomly mixing population is developed. This model facilitates the estimation of transmission probabilities from the observed attack rates. If some of the members of the population are vaccinated, then the vaccine efficacy (VE), defined as the relative reduction in the transmission probability due to vaccination, can be estimated. We provide several estimators of VE, depending on the amount of information available on the mixing pattern and on the action of the vaccine. We show that if vaccinated persons increase the frequency of their contacts with infectious persons, then estimators ignoring this change in behavior may substantially underestimate the VE.